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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still