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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.